Monday, December 22, 2008

Historic decade ahead

As the world has entered into difficult times in all key spheres that impact human existence, politics, economics, environment, healthcare and social structures, it will be soon that we will see the climax and real outcome of the fall out on all these issues in the very near future. The curtain is beginning to go up.

Therefore in many ways the decade ahead will be a turning point. I strongly believe that mankind will re-invent itself. It will drop the baggage from the past on many beliefs and notions and aspirations and settle down to a new basis or system for survival and existence. It will be a decade of innovation and discovery, not just technology, but for existence and survival. It will be a decade on changes and dealing with, adapting and learning to cope with changes in the way we think, react and action as individuals and socio-economic groups.

Three ‘C’s will be very relevant, more than ever before, Co-ordination, Creativity and Consumption. The meaning, relevance and importance of these C elements will change dramatically in all spheres mentioned above.

We have made all matters around us fairly complex and ability to maintain continuity and enhance any existing tangible and intangible is becoming extremely challenging. They thinking process will have to undergo significant change to simplify matters, make them more amenable for masses and not classes and improve reach and access to masses. This will mean co-ordination of complex elements and re-organizing the architecture and processes, roles and actions will require new methods and approaches which are simpler and scalable more easily, in implementation and costs. This C element opportunity exists across all spheres of life including birth, death, marriage, education, healthcare, food, travel, holidays, entertainment, communication, etc.

Over the last few decades, generally speaking there has been very little on creativity that has met expectations or the needs of the consumer. There has been more of repackaging what was created a few decades ago, or branding in the push manner to create need for what exists, rather than create to fulfill the real need. The delivery systems changed quite significantly with advent of information technology. Also some more needs were being met with technology becoming cheaper and more widely available. However, the real needs in all spheres of life has changed quite dramatically due to fundamental changes in the way masses think and react to the environment around them. Accordingly all needs at mental and physical level will require a significant response by trade and commerce, society at large, education and healthcare systems, research and discovery and religious beliefs and followings. Better dissemination of information, analysis and views will push the supply side to change the way they treat and service the recipient quite dramatically. Past and current formulae of sales and marketing will gradually lose relevance and a new philosophy backed by actual needs fulfillment will replace existing models.

The C on Consumption will undergo dramatic changes as well. They human tendency will continue to have a consumption driven mindset though there will be changes in underlying philosophy of choices, selection and satisfaction. Consumption will be less driven by needs for luxury, style or demonstration effect but driven more by environment consciousness, individual aspiration for contribution to change, society, new beliefs, health and more importantly what is necessary for improvement of following generations. Consumer will be willing to make sacrifices in expectations of style and satisfaction. Consumer will be willing to accept a higher decimal on total satisfaction i.e. material, social, environmental and intangible rather than give higher significance only to material experience or to intangible experience. This change will manifest across all major needs on education, healthcare, careers, housing, leisure etc.

The underlying C factor over the historic next decade will therefore be Change, hopefully for the better.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Character of a Nation

It is very interesting to note the character of any Nation and how it evolves slowly over the years. It is also interesting that although there is some evolution, the basic character remains unchanged for centuries. There are interesting challenges each Nation across the world has and at the root lies how will the Nation, its people, their leaders as well as their actions on their internal and global issues impact their own future in times to come.

A lot of the character is reflected in how the people of a country deal with travelers from across the world on a day to day basis ie interaction at the grass root level. Also how the conduct business locally and globally and what is the business ethics and credibility / reliability perception. Character is also reflected in how the country plays its sports and the levels to which it will go to win and play the game. Most interestingly the Nation’s character is reflected by the views and actions it takes on global issues, and the actual helping hand / contributions they make to help others. I do not have too much of research but have populated the thoughts below based on the perceptions and information I have. Please do come up with your suggestions and information which will help us look at these matters more objectively.

The Americans are great sportsmen, very aggressive in winning at any cost, just as if it is matter of life and death and millions!!! Have they developed many new areas of global supremacy in sports or continued to develop and retain favorite areas such as baseball, basketball, athletics, and tennis, amongst a few others. As a Nation they speak and care a lot about freedom and particularly of speech and action. They pride themselves that liberty is above all. They have multiple internal issues, have and have-nots, and also other types of divide within their society and geographies, what they think about the rest of the world - do they largely look down upon the rest of the world and they believe they are superior to rest of the world. Their own survival and lifestyle is above rest of the world and in maintaining and enhancing their lifestyle and capitalist and consumption driven economy, could they have put other parts of the world into long term problems i.e. Middle East for oil and China for mass procurement which has led to a certain labor and human right situation in the world’s largest populated country. Have they allowed their technologies and products on armaments to be available directly and indirectly to both friends and foes both internally and abroad? Are they in any way responsible for mass destruction of human life across the world; can we blame them at all? What have they given to the rest of the world, what is their global contribution, well maybe lots of money to poor nations, security and stability by military interventions!! Have they created artificial barriers for free trade through trade agreements, sanctions, and other forms of negotiations tactics which have been largely to suite their interests etc? Do they believe in survival of the fittest and they believe with all their money and might, they will be the fittest to have global supremacy. Not to mention their immense contributions to global warming and environment deterioration!!

The Europeans (British, French, German, etc) do they still believe deep within that white skin or their race is better than rest of the world? They have for centuries been colonist ever seeking to expand their global territories, amass wealth and enslave workers across the world. To combine this with their internal religious wars between factions and various religious practices followed across their continent. Time and again it is visible that although the Europeans acknowledge that other parts of the world gaining supremacy in their pride sports or businesses and gaining edge over them, do majority Europeans deep within still find it difficult to digest this global change and are sometimes vocal or passive opponents to developing world success. The East and West German combine is historic and if the positive results are made visible to the world, perhaps it will provide an alternative solution to the current global issues geographies which are more divisive and intent on breaking the current maps or realigning rather than considering the benefits of combining.

The erstwhile Soviet Union was impacted by internal divide and regional battles and the maps were redrawn. Their experiment with communism worked or failed is a matter of debate but it has and will impact many generations till they get their governance structures working and creating opportunities for their people. The Russians are great sportsmen, great scientists and also culturally rich society which can achieve a lot. The cold war resulted in many wasted years of espionage and diversion of resources for war and science for weapons, hopefully some of that will change now. Are they looking to restore their lost glory and be a force to reckon with again the global order and how?

The Chinese has been a great society for sports and learning, but appear to have been chained!! So they had many issues across centuries dealing with internal rebellion, regional divide, huge divide between have and have-nots, human rights issues, diseases and healthcare, and a huge army, perhaps the biggest in the region, all other countries put together will be perhaps less than their armed forces!!

Canada and Australia have been more or less satellite countries wanting to be largely left alone from all the global mess. They have got involved in global affairs to the extent necessary and avoiding to muddy their hands beyond a point. They have adopted globalization by way of sports, business, trade and commerce. They have their local challenges in managing the melting pot of various nationalities migrating and settling and perhaps are doing better than a few other nations.

The Middle East appears to be always at war however back one reads into history. The have been wars for wealth, power and religion for centuries and centuries. This region has been a great melting pot for cultures and traditions. The place has never been at peace, there has always been a tension about the neighbors, insecurity for preservation of the religion and a very unique governance structure. It is confusing whether the current structures for managing the Middle East countries will help them come out of their past legacy issues and look at globalization more effectively. Have the masses that have migrated away from their home countries to other parts of the world appear to have done well!!

Pakistan has many internal and regional issues. All the real issues appear to have been clouded with the national passion i.e. liberation or conquest of Kashmir!! and the logic being that as a Nation, perhaps they have concluded that Islamic minorities will always be oppressed wherever they are in the world and they will liberate them and give them the freedom, whether those minorities want them involved or not. Have they used regional issues to their financial and political advantages? Do many nations across the world trust them? What is the image they have build for themselves in the global world?

Further, it is believed that mafia is fairly active in most of the continents, getting organized and wealthy and involved in the most lucrative businesses directly or indirectly, starting with bullion and metals, mining, drugs, construction and real estate, etc. Is the mafia influencing the way a Nation reacts to global issues?

India, there are so many things to say for centuries of culture and heritage, unity in diversity, and the numerous challenges faced by the country and its resilience, the freedom struggle and the effects of democracy, the wars with our neighbors, China and Pakistan, the sanctions by the US post nuclear tests, the global achievements by Indians, the spiritual leadership, etc. And then there is also large number of domestic issues. But the main issue is we are too tolerant? Is the way we will continue or we will learn to solve our problems rather than wish them away? What character we want to change if we have the ability to be a world power in a decade or two from now?

Somewhere India needs to rethink as a Nation whether it will only make a lot of noise globally on current issues and spend years to get global support or also do something and take concrete action which will drive change, will we demonstrate through action that we can take care of ourselves and also make the world a better place. Will we be vocal and state clearly without worrying about sanctions etc as to who our friends and who are foes are? Will we have the courage to firmly deal with internal divisive forces that are trying to separate and break-up the country and seeking autonomy under various pretexts? Do we need stronger leadership who will deal with the current issues as required in today’s global order and not the traditional ways of mere words? As a Nation are we as individual citizens and small groups as geographies, religions or whatever manner of aggregation willing to sacrifice and give ground on some issues that impact us so that National level reforms can be achieved? We have shown the Character as a Nation many times in the past to make sacrifices, not just wealth but sacrifices of a lifetime, so we have the Character. Perhaps what is required that we have the right leadership whom we can trust will deliver effectively so that the sacrifices are not in vain.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

We will need a miracle !!!

I have been watching a lot of discussions, opinions and views being splashed by media, whose-who and celebrities across the country and also other parts of the world on the global terror situation. There is discussion on contribution of constructive ideas and practical suggestions and white papers to be given to the Government so that they can tackle the situation and make the country and the world a better place. I am losing hope that whether this will really cause any tangible change. Three points to be considered are highlighted below.
1 For thousands of years, the world has always been ruled by handful few from the total population although over the years we have moved from monarchy / aristocracy to communism, democracy and other forms of Government which have taken form in more recent years. In today’s times, if we take any country say India, and broad analysis is, the top guys from politics, bureaucrats, corporate majors, institution, media and social activists all put together will constitute barely 5,000 persons (I think I am really overestimating). At the top it is highly likely that these persons biggest objective individually and collectively will be to maintain their top position and retain and grow their supremacy either by making their function indispensable or ensuring that the others are dependant on them for existence and survival. As a result these people tend to feed-off each other and reach a tacit coalition amongst them. There are some ripples once in a while when there are ego clashes or blame game but eventually all settle down to teaming and managing their power bases to ensure that the control over the masses continues. So in reality, and for all practical purposes, the masses including the rich and famous, the poor, the not so poor and the middle class are not in control at all. Let us not fool ourselves to believe that our view counts. For years we have been vocal about our views. This is where it normally ends i.e. at getting satisfaction of having made the noise. What happens next is hardly in our control and ability to cause change. It is only once in one or two centuries that a build up is created like a pent up volcano and if the masses are lucky leadership emerges to cause revolution / change. The change is normally a new set of the 5,000 odd person in control and then things are back to the same ie a small teamed up group is in control again of the masses. The poor are busy in their survival and attempts to make it big, led by a few success stories and the rich are busy amassing wealth and trying to influence the powers that be for more tax relief, benefits, sops, protection, laws, etc all of which will go to enhance their wealth and are busy enjoying the wealth rather than worry about implications of what is happening behind the scenes to cause discontinuities in lives of the masses.
2 The decoy technique has always be used by the ‘rulers’ in the past whether political, whether religious or anyone else who is at the top whenever they are in a difficult situation. One thing they have learnt well is that when any relevant or irrelevant issue is set before masses, they will make them busy evaluating multiple opinions and views and will get busy with analyzing and debating and arguing about the issue. While the focus is taken away from reality and the ‘ruler’ is having the last laugh. All they have to do is either create an artificial problem or in case a problem already exists, give it an angle or find a scapegoat and throw it open for public debate. Is it not obvious that when there are many people involved within a country, or a caste, or a profession or globally discussing on any issue, many views will emerge and lot of debate will happen and by the time those in participation develop a deeper insight and understanding of the real issue, the tide has passed. So masses are and have been moved away from real issue time and again.
3 With the advances in technology globally, satellites, global surveillance networks, global resources ie sources and uses of funds, information on cultures, knowledge, etc better shared and available across the world, it appears almost impossible that if a small group of maybe 25,000 persons being trained for terrorism by approx 50 to 100 big bosses can cause global disruption and concern of this magnitude and continue to survive and remain in existence for over a decade and more. I find it difficult to believe that the world powers are not aware or unable to have definitive information on existence of these disruptive forces and unwilling to weed out a global issue which is threatening the peaceful human existence. Or they willfully are turning a blind eye or doing lip service as this will create another reason for all the other nations’ i.e. Kid nations to run to their parents, and seek help, beg for assistance and intermediation and that will be once again their way or retaining their supremacy. Or is it that the biggies are really not so big and are not really in control of the world and the trillions and trillions they have spend on making this a better world and having the best brains and resources under their control has been used for their own security and retention of supremacy rather than well being of the human civilization at large.

This time around, if things continue the way they are for a few more years, and more and more life becomes difficult at the grass root level, it is very likely that there will be increasing trends of civil disobedience and protests, more divisions within the countries for greater local autonomy from central control. It is possible that either the world map could change dramatically, or instead of true globalization, human race may get divided once again as they will rush to be part of clusters or groups they believe will help their survival.

I still hope that some miracle will make the world a better place than it is.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Terrifying issues on the backburner – will these be part of election agenda in 2009 or get clouded by terror attacks

Having being glued to many channels on television during the past few days, one of the statistics I heard was that there were about 10,000 terror attacks last year across the world, including both major and minor attacks. There were around 22,000 lives lost in these attacks globally last year.

Let us see this in context of some terrifying issues existing in India. Yesterday there was another statistic in the newspapers which said that in India alone there were around 14 suicides every minute and over 122,000 annually, highest being in the state of Maharashtra. Here is the killer is not visible, but obviously behind every suicide there is some reason or circumstances which lead these, and there will be someone who could be responsible for these reasons or circumstances.

I don’t have the details for accidents in India, but broadly recollect that in India, accidents are responsible for maximum deaths. This includes accident rail, crossings, road, drunken driving, lack of safety at construction sites, work places related, illicit liquor consumption, floods, etc. Further, India’s statistic about deaths relating to poverty and lack of medical facilities including childbirth, starvation, malnutrition, cold weather and heavy rains etc etc. India also probably has the maximum number of deaths relating to caste and creed violence and killings.

There have been a lot of efforts by social activists and some authorities to deal with these issues, however, there has never been building of public opinion the way it has build up for terror attacks. This may be probably because it does not affect the day to day life of the elite and urban population and the thinking is that if it does not affect me it is not my problem. After the way in which the last terror strike actually made it more clear to the elite that their day to day life and business will be affected and that it is a national security issue, which it is.

Perhaps, we as Indians have developed this habit of leaving any public opinion of authoritative corrective action too late and tend to accept and get along with life until things come to a stage where we reach stage of total insecurity and helplessness.

While we put national security issues on the top, the media and common Indian should also bring these issues to the forefront as India goes to vote in 2009. The Government has to be made accountable and should demonstrate concrete corrective action and improvement in the above areas. Else it could lead to bigger issues from internal disobedience compared to global terror.

A friend send me a very apt quote: what happens around us is largely outside our control, but the way we chose to react is not.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Mumbai and other metros say “Enough is enough” – what is India’s voice?

Everyone is being put under pressure now, the security agencies, the bureaucrats, the politicians and more. The media has been fairly active in analyzing the issues around the terror attacks in Mumbai, the past attacks and lack of action on part of all those involved.

Citizens want action; some concrete suggestions also have been spelt out. There is a strong opinion building around this, which if well directed will help the country to move forward. Some focus though is required in building an all India consensus on this issue.

We all know that true India is rural India. A vast majority of the population stays in the villages of India in extremely challenging environment. For them the terrorist could include the local mafia supported by the politicians, local moneylender and upper caste landlords and anyone who creates deprivation for the peaceful sustenance, for their women and children and their right to appropriate livelihood for their hard work. Rural migration to metros for search of livelihood has also created strange social issues for the rural families. Will these villages and the poor masses be affected by what is happening from terror attacks in metros!!

The terror attacks in the past have a largely affected metro suburbs, hit trains, buses, temples etc. The so called masses of the cities have been deeply affected. For the first time, these attacks have also affected the central business districts including the rich and famous in a big way along with the masses. The north south divide in Mumbai which has been discussed many times in the past specially when we were hit by floods on 26 July a few years ago and the lack of infrastructure in the suburbs; one wonders what material action has taken place to deal with the issue affecting the masses.

Similarly this time around, a large portion of our patriots, soldiers and politicians still come from rural India, it will be great if rural India can be joined into this movement which is gathering momentum now. Else it will provide another opportunity to certain politicians who will get away by dividing the country yet again on the basis of caste, creed and economic disparity and continue to ‘rule’ whilst the urban intelligentsia can keep shouting from the roof tops.

Corporate India and NGOs should come up with concrete and speedy action on the ground so that rural India can find some support from urban India to rise above their survival issues and join this ‘revolution’ which can help India deal with its system and systemic issues prevailing for over 6 decades.

Social inclusion needs to precede financial inclusion. Social inclusion will include many steps on health, education, housing, electricity, water etc. Without this country could remain divided and susceptible to many forces such as mafia, naxalites and religious groups working on the mindsets of the underprivileged. The politicians and bureaucrats will show some action steps, a new law, a new central agency etc and deal with the present tide on national security and find some time to breathe easy. However, the politician’s bigger failing is and will continue to be the lack of action on social and financial inclusion at rural level which will impair any efforts to keep the country united on national level issues. The current revolution should also make efforts for social inclusion of rural India and this time it has to be driven by urban India.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Terror attacks and Mahatama Gandhi

The terrorist have time and again very clearly stated that they have no remorse for the actions of killing many innocent humans and it is their way to send a message to certain parts of the world.

It would be useful to assess what would one of the greatest proponents for non-voilence, the father of Indian Nation, Mahatama Gandhi (Bapu) done if this was to happen in his time and age.

I am not an expert on Bapu or "Gandhi giri" but with whatever I have known, read and heard from history and more, the following two things come to my mind:

a) Bapu would have definetely planned and implemented / taken action, done something about it. Bapu would never just speak about issues but also take action.

b) Bapu would have planned something like a dandi march to the terrorist camps wherever they are on the face of earth without fearing that the terrorists would have fired and killed ... he would have taken a peace yatra and lakhs and lakhs would have followed him.

Interesting imagine, lakhs of peaceful protestors from across the country, assembling at Pakistan border and then walking across to Pakistan and to the locations where the terror training camps are in peaceful protests against their attacks.

In today's times, I think the politicians will not let this happen. Forget Pakistan authorities, even Indian authorities will not permit such a peace march suggesting that lives of their citizens are at risk. But who would have the courage to stop Bapu, if he was here and decided to do such a thing..

Also some interesting dimensions if this peace march was to happen now..
- will minorities and the other nationalities such as Americans and Brits join such a peace march ? and will their Governments allow their citizens to join even if they were willing?
- will the terrorists fire and kill the peace march protestors if they were ever to reach the terror camps?
- will a non-violent demostration have any impact on the terrorist and their leaders so that they refrain from the current style of violent protests for whatever cause they seek to achieve? will there be another Jalianwalla baug?

Unable to get any clear answers for the above, I continue to think what Bapu would have done. An more ideas on what Bapu would have done are welcome, do let me know, maybe we will find the novel action plan we all need for deal with the crisis through concrete action rather than mere talk and protests..

I do not know much about the background of developments in Thailand, but whatever I hear in the news it appears that a peace protest similar to Bapu's non-cooperation movement at Bangkok airport has brought the issue to the fore and the concrete action is resulting in the issue being dealt with by the authorities.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Re - actions to Terror attacks - more introspection required

It is normal human tendency to 'react' in case of advsersity particularly one that creates life threatening insecurity and high levels of personal and collective uncertainity. The reaction is more pronounced when the sample/example of devastation is visible and the impact can be comprehended by every common person. The reaction will typical will follow a pattern of expressing anger and anguish, find accountability (be able to blame it on someone) and then give ideas for what should be done to change this. I am following the same trend!!

Born in a country where for thousand of years all seekers and achievers have followed and guided that instrospection 'within' provides solutions to all questions rather than looking at things externally, I set upon the deep dive within to seek answers to the world has changed in many ways so much for the worst ..

Two things are very clearly visible to me if I try to see clearly how I as an individual have contributed to the mess and if many of us are doing the same thing, how we are responsible for the chaos:

Firstly, globally there is a huge opportunity and financial disparity have created a huge divide amongst people to the extent that to date large part of the human race is struggling to achieve a basic decent human existence and to this extent will always feel justified in any of their actions to alleviate themselves and being 'led' to be be 'misled' driven by their circumstances. When one is a constant rat race to earn more and do more and achieve more even at the cost of others, and not doing enough to create an environment for helping fellow humans who are less priveleged, we have sowed the seed for the results we see today on the aggression, unrest and more which is manifesting in many ways of deteriorating law and order, theft, corruption, decline in values and even terror.. One can go on analysing this at all levels, country level, capitalists vs socialist vs democracy, religion, like minded groups etc etc, the root cause that one wants more and is not willing to support fellow humans, not only in money but in other ways cannot be denied.

Secondly, being part of global commerce as a profession, the global meltdown and the many reasons attributed for the same by experts, deep dive shows me that the only way out of this is when the fellow humans are gainfully gemployed, have income and spends it and/or invest it. So end of the day, the masses, have to be again lifted to a standard of existence level, else the so called 'commercial world' which tends to exclude a large portion of human race will continue to see less than expected wealth creation and claim to suffer.

While there are bigger issues such as environment, health and human inclusion where there is some reaction but not enough as the overall impact is not so visible to the common person, once again due to events the world will focus energies on the short term immediate solutions to feel a temporary respite without doing much on fundamental issue which take long term to change. I am not saying that is wrong to do, but believe that more fundamental action will be required.

At my own level, I have made some resolve to do things differently at my own level - target - make a difference to atleast 10 individuals/families in the next one year:

a) Help and guide others to the best of my ability wthout expecting anything in return to enable them to create opportunities for themselves and for other fellow humans

b) Be less greedy and less consumption driven and use a greater part of my surplus time and wealth, not just in giving away donations, by in active tangible action to create an environment where education for children and gainful work opportunities improve for others

Fortunately with today's day and age of technology, it is possible to share views and gather momentum and actually do things fast. I believe even if a small pecentile of us deep dive and drive a change from ourselves, the impact will be visible soon..